The Odds of winning a Blackjack Game
On the odds of winning in Blackjack:
Casino’s House Edge
It is a number which is calculated when they take all the bets made, and multiply the amount by the percentage that would be kept by the casino.
What is Payout Percentage
It is also known as Return Percentage and points out the percentage the player will keep of his bet, or the amount that will return to the player.
The House Edge and the Payout Percentage are calculated assuming the players’ decisions will be statistically correct. If the Payout Percentage is, for instance, 95%, the House Edge will be 5%.
The importance of variables
There are variables that impact the odds. They are cumulative: the House Edge is combined with the rules for and against your favor. The cumulative is the real House Edge. Accredited software on casinos
Software used on casinos is accredited, so randomness is guaranteed. That is another factor you must remember.
How your strategy can impact the Casino’s House Edge
Basic Strategy is your tool with which you can impact the odds. You will learn to spot what you need and how to play accordingly.
On Basic Strategy and upping odds
This strategy is based on logical conclusions with regard to the cards dealt already. Strive to exceed the total count for the dealer’s hand, without going over 21. You can hit, to add more cards, but basic strategy will help enormously, too. You will add your skill to the chances. The basic moves you can make after the dealing of the first two cards, before the dealer’s opening the Face Down card, are hitting, standing, doubling, splitting, or surrendering. Make your choices of moves based on your two cards. Strategy will help to take sensible decisions regarding your moves.
If you deem your cards are good enough, you must stand. If you double, you increase your bet twice, and you get one more card. You can split when the cards dealt to have the same rank; each of these cards will become the first one for a new hand, and your wager will double, too. When you think your two cards will not likely get you a win, you had better surrender: the benefit is you will get back half your bet.
House Rules at the Blackjack table
House Rules, or Blackjack Conditions, are the rules at the table. The rules for the game of Blackjack are different with different tables. They will impact your odds: your odds will be better on some casinos.
Below is a helpful table with odds: the ones with plus are to your benefit, the ones with minus are to the casino’s benefit. For the odds below, 8 decks are used, and Double Down is allowed on the first two cards dealt only, after splitting, and resplitting for total 4 hands.
|Rule||Description||Impact on Odds|
|Double Exposure||The cards are dealt face up.||+ 8.80 %|
|Blackjack Paying 2:1||Not the normal 3:2. Here you get more for your bet.||+ 2.27 %|
|Five Cards Charlie||With 5 cards which totaling 21 or less, you will automatically beat. The exception is the dealer’s having a Blackjack, even if his total is higher.||+ 1.46 %|
|Suited Blackjack Paying 2:1||Suited means “of the same suit”. Not the normal 3:2, but a 2:1, so you win a larger amount.||+ 57 %|
|21 automatically Wins||When your hand total is 21.||+ 54 %|
|Early Surrender (with Dealer’s Upcard an Ace)||You can surrender, and lose half your bet. You can do that before the dealer checks for a Blackjack.||+ 39%|
|You Win, Blackjack Ties||When both you and the dealer have Blackjack.||+ 30 %|
|Early Surrender (with Dealer’s Upcard a Ten)||You can give up, not play your hand, and lose half your bet. You can do that before the dealer’s checks for a Blackjack.||+ 24 %|
|Double Down on 3 or More Cards||+ 21 %|
|Late Surrender (with Any Cards Number)||You can surrender, with any cards number, after the dealer’s checking for a Blackjack.||+ 20 %|
|Hit on Split Aces Is Allowed||Also called Draw to Split Aces. Usually allowed on one card only.||+ 19 %|
|Blackjack After Split Is Allowed||The payout is 1:1, not the normal payout. That is a rare rule, but a good one.||+ 19 %|
|Six Cards Charlie||With it, when your cards total 21 or less, you will automatically beat, except a dealer’s Blackjack, even in case the dealer’s total is higher.||+ 15 %|
|Double Down after Splitting||+ 13 %|
|Resplitting Aces Is Allowed||You can do that on a hand already split on another Aces pair.||+ 08 %|
|Late Surrender (with Dealer’s Upcard a 10)||You can give up, not play your hand, and lose half your bet. You can do that after the dealer’s checking for a Blackjack.||+ 07 %|
|Seven Cards Charlie||When you have 7 cards which total 21, you will automatically beat, except a dealer’s Blackjack, even though the dealer has higher total.||+ 01 %|
|Late Surrender (with Dealer’s Upcard an Ace)||You give up, not play your hand, after the dealer has checked for a Blackjack, and you will lose half your bet.||+ 00 %|
|Split Rescue||With this rule, you can surrender after splitting.||+ 00 %|
|Resplit, to 2 Hands Only||Remember the casino can limit the splitting times number.||- 01 %|
|No Peek (with the Dealer’s Upcard an Ace)||First all the players will take turns, then the dealer will check for their having a Blackjack. You can double down, or split. You can bet more, and lose more.||- 01 %|
|Double After Splitting Allowed, with the EXCEPTION on Aces||- 08 %|
|Double Down, on 9 to 11 only||The casino may limit your options for doubling down, to only certain hand totals.||- 09 %|
|No Peek (with Dealer’s Upcard a Ten)||The players will all take turns, then the dealer will check for a Blackjack.||- 10 %|
|No Resplitting Allowed||- 10 %|
|No Doubling Down after Splitting||After splitting, you will have no option of doubling down.||- 14 %|
|No Splitting of Aces||- 18 %|
|Double Down, on 10 to11 only||The casino may limit you options of doubling down, to only certain hand totals.||- 18 %|
|Dealer Hits on Soft 17||Unlike the normal dealer’s standing on 17. Here, the dealer’s hit will be on Soft 17 (A to 6).||- 22 %|
|No Splitting||.||- 58 %|
|Double Down on 11 only||The casino may limit you options of doubling down, to only certain hand totals.||- 69 %|
|Blackjack Pays 6:5||Not the normal 3:2. With this ratio, you will win less, so it is a bad rule for players.||- 1.39 %|
|No Doubling Down||- 1.47 %|
|The Player Loses 17 Ties||You and the dealer have 17.||- 1.87 %|
|Blackjack Pays 1:1||Not the normal 3:2. With this ratio, you will win less, so it is a bad rule for players.||- 2.26 %|
|The Player Loses 17-18 Ties||You and the dealer have 17 or 18.||- 3.58 %|
|Never Bust Strategy||Not a good strategy. Never Bust means never take a hit on 12, or on higher.||- 3.91 %|
|No Insurance||That will only impact card counters.||- 46 %|
|The Player Loses 17-19 Ties||You and the dealer have 17, 18, or 19, and you will lose.||- 5.30 %|
|Mimicking Dealer’s Strategy||Not a good strategy. You always hit on 16, or on lower, and will stand on 17, hard or soft. You will never split or double.||- 5.48 %|
|Casino Surrender||The payout for that bet is 1/2. That will happen only after the dealer has checked for a Blackjack. This is a rule benefiting the casino.||- 5.48 %|
|The Player Loses 17-20 Ties||You and the dealer have 17, 18, 19, or 20, and you will lose.||- 8.38 %|
|The Player Loses 17-21 Ties||You and the dealer have 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21, and you will lose.||- 8.86 %|
|Assume Ten in the Hole||Not a good strategy. You play as if the hole card with the dealer is a ten; you will hit or stand, accordingly.||- 10.03 %|
|Now some rule variations, without odds shown:|
|Double Down on 8-11 only||The casino may limit your options of doubling down, to only certain hand totals.|
|Double Down Rescue||You can surrender after doubling down.|
|Redoubling Allowed||You may redouble your bet.|
|Double Down on the First 2 Cards Only||A standard rule for doubling down.|
|Double Down on 2-3 Cards Only||You can double down, even after you have taken one hit. At some tables, you can double on any cards number, on 2 cards, or on 2-3 cards.|
|Peek Ace||When the dealer has Ace showing, he will check for a Blackjack.|
|Peek Ace or Ten||When the dealer has Ace or a Ten showing, he will check for a Blackjack.|
|Insurance||That is a side bet, when there is an Ace showing with the dealer. Usually it totals half your regular bet; you bet the dealer has a Blackjack.|
House Edge on Insurance
The rule you must first and foremost abide by is to never buy insurance. You must not do that, even if you have a Blackjack (take exception if you are card counting). The House Edge on Insurance is cumulative, and to the benefit of the casino. That is additional to the standard edge, so please subtract it from the percentage of your odds.
Deck Number and House Edge
With each card coming from the shoe, the advantage may change, to favor the player or the house. With more decks, the odds are more auspicious for the casino. That is additional to the standard edge, so please subtract it from the percentage of your odds.
The House Edge and Continuous Shuffle Machines
When CSM are used, it is like having a fresh shoe for each hand, and that is to the player’s benefit (not if you are card counting). The house will compensate for that with the dealer dealing around 20% more hands in an hour, and the advantage will increase with the hands dealt. For you as the player the losses will be higher.
Some more factors impacting your odds
According to computer simulations, the dealer breaks 28.23% of the time (based on millions of rounds, but so many rounds are unlikely in practice.)
According to a Harvard mathematician, 7 shuffles are needed to randomize a deck. It follows that 8 decks will not be shuffled, until they are totally randomized. The dealer’s break ratio will get to a very low percentage compared to computer simulations results.
Card counting will up your odds, but you may be banned by the casino if they spot you.
After being dealt with your two cards and you decide it's too low from 21, you can hit or get an additional card to add to your total. If you believe that your two cards are good enough then you"stand". A double is doubling your bet and getting one more card. A split is allowed when you're dealt with cards dealt that have the same rank. If you opt to split your hand, each card will be considered as the first card of two new hands to come out of the split. The wager is also doubled in this move. Now, if you think the two cards dealt you has very little chance of winning, you can opt to surrender and take back half of your total bet. These are the basic moves and they can be used to maximize your chances at winning when selected with the basic blackjack strategy in mind.
Basic Blackjack Strategy
Finally, we've come to the strategy part. Here is where you will learn to identify the possibilities and your options in trying for a win in each deal. Now that you have familiarized yourself with the basic moves, take a look at these approaches in applying what you know. The more you practice, the more approaches and new strategies you can come up with to increase your.
- If you are dealt with an Ace, the best way to go is to hit so that you can get a new card and increase the total of your hand.
- If the dealer is showing a high card like a 7 or more then take a hit if your hand is less than 17. This is risky but somewhat worth it because there's a big chance the hole card (dealer's faced down card) has a high value too.
- Always split when you have two aces.
- You can do a double if your card total is larger than 10 and the dealer's hand is less than that.
- When you have a hand value higher than 9 and the dealer's is lower, it's wise to"stand". If you hit, there's a risk that you will get busted. Instead let the dealer deal more cards for himself and hope he gets busted.
- When you have a soft ace, you can do a double and if that's not allowed, you hit.
- Never purchase insurance unless you're sure that most of the naturals and aces have been dealt already. This means that you're already doing some card counting.
Remember, the more you practice, the more you can develop your style with some new approaches and techniques in employing the basic blackjack strategy.